Pembaruan Analisis Hidrologi untuk Estimasi Debit Banjir Rencana DAS Cisadane Menggunakan HEC-HMS
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Abstract
Design flood estimation is a critical component in hydraulic infrastructure planning, particularly for large bridges located in watersheds characterized by complex hydrological dynamics and rapid regional development. This study aims to update the design flood estimation for the Cisadane River Bridge in the PIK 2 Extension area by incorporating updated hydrological data and evaluating the influence of changes in rainfall characteristics on flood estimation results. The 100-year return period design flood (Q100) was adopted in accordance with bridge classification standards. The analysis was conducted using a rainfall–runoff approach implemented in the HEC-HMS model. A previous hydrological study conducted in 2015 was reconstructed as a baseline, with updates to the rainfall data series and explicit representation of infiltration based on land use and soil type using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. The design rainfall pattern (hyetograph) was updated to reflect increased rainfall intensity observed after 2014. The modeling results indicate a peak discharge of the Q100 design flood of 2,090.4 m³/s, representing a significant increase compared to the 2015 study result of 1,422.8 m³/s. This increase is primarily attributed to changes in rainfall intensity and temporal distribution reflected in the updated hyetograph, while the watershed hydrological response is assumed to remain relatively unchanged. These findings highlight the importance of regularly updating rainfall data and design rainfall patterns to ensure the reliability and safety of bridge design under increasingly extreme rainfall conditions
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