Estimasi Tingkat Aktivasi Virus COVID-19 dengan Menggunakan Metode Kalman Filter (Studi Kasus: di Provinsi Jawa Timur)

  • Tahiyatul Asfihani Departement Matematika, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
  • Choiriyah Sapta Agustina Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya
  • Ahmad Ulul Hazmi Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya
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Abstract

Abstract

COVID-19 is a concern in several countries because the rate of spread is fast enough to cause many deaths. COVID-19 is a disease caused by SARS-Cov-2. In this study, the SARS-Cov-2 activation rate was estimated using the Kalman Filter. The SARS-Cov-2 activation rate is the rate of change of the exposed class (Exposed) who completed the incubation period into the infected class (Infected). The spread of the COVID-19 disease was approached by the SEIR mathematical model. The SARS-Cov-2 activation rate is a parameter of SEIR's mathematical model of COVID-19 spread. The simulation results show that the SARS-Cov-2 activation rate in East Java in October 2021 is 0.563. The RMSE value that indicates the level of accuracy of the estimation process is 0,08.

Keywords: COVID-19, Parameter Estimation, Kalman Filter, East Java

 

Abstrak

COVID-19 menjadi perhatian di beberapa negara karena tingkat penyebarannya cukup cepat hingga mengakibatkan banyak kematian. COVID-19 merupakan penyakit yang disebabkan oleh virus SARS-Cov-2. Pada penelitian ini, tingkat aktivasi SARS-Cov-2 diestimasi menggunakan Kalman Filter. Tingkat aktivasi SARS-Cov-2 adalah tingkat perubahan individu terpapar (Exposed) yang selesai masa inkubasi dan masuk ke dalam kelas yang terinfeksi (Infected). Penyebaran penyakit COVID-19 didekati dengan model matematika SEIR. Tingkat aktivasi SARS-Cov-2 merupakan parameter dari model matematika penyebaran COVID-19 SEIR. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa tingkat aktivasi SARS-Cov-2 di Jawa Timur pada Oktober 2021 bernilai 0,563. Tingkat keakuratan proses estimasi ditunjukkan melalui nilai RMSE sebesar 0,08.

Kata Kunci: COVID-19, Estimasi Parameter, Kalman Filter, Provinsi Jawa Timur.

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Author Biography

Tahiyatul Asfihani, Departement Matematika, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

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Published
2022-05-25
Section
Articles